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A pattern defined by three points is not one you want to hang your hat on, but that is what we have at Yellowstone.There are no signs right now that Yellowstone could be heading to any sort of gigantic eruption—in fact, there is little sign of any time of eruption.Those big eruptions—the Lava Creek at ~640,000 years ago, the Mesa Falls at ~1.3 million years ago and the Huckleberry Ridge at ~2.1 million years ago—were huge.The Huckleberry Ridge tuff was the largest of these explosive eruptions, producing over 2,400 cubic kilometers of volcanic debris that spread over much of the continent. That’s about the same as filling and emptying Lake Erie five times!

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However, it has produced some really massive eruptions in its history—well, three times in its history dating back to ~2.1 million years ago.Yet, although the caldera has these massive eruptions, the likelihood of such an eruption is very low.They are such uncommon events that we don’t even know if they happen with any cyclicality.In the short-term, we might get one heck of a geothermal power plant, but in the end, it would likely not be enough.When all is said and done, a massive eruption at Yellowstone, or any other caldera for that matter, isn’t a question we should answer by trying to stop it.

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